mollyfamwatWith the NFL Free Agency approaching, the 32 teams will look a little different in a few weeks. Positioning needs will change, and each franchise’s approach to the first grade will change. round of the 2021 NFL Draft will be clearer.
But for now, teams are starting to get an idea of what recruiting prospects fit into their plans and what they can do when they get started in just under two months. The process of preparing for the draft is very different than what we are used to, but the group of prospects is full of talent. Of course, it starts with the talent of the first generation of quarterbacks at the top of the class.
So what happens on the 29th. April? Here are my current predictions on how the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft will play out, starting with the Jaguars franchise adding on number one. As in my previous simulation, I expect two transactions to shake up the top 10. And for the 32 picks, I asked our NFL reporters to give their analysis on how each player could make the team for 2021 and beyond. For more information, watch the Mock Draft 3.0 SportsCenter Special, which airs Friday night at 10 p.m. ET (ESPN2). Okay, let’s get started.
You’ll see more of them: Rating
Go to : Trade 1 | Trade 2
Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson.
I might start my spot drafts with the second pick because Lawrence is going to Jacksonville to be Urban Meyer’s new QB coach, as close to a lock as you can get in early March. The Jaguars’ quarterback staff has been among the worst in the entire CBI league the past three seasons, finishing no higher than 26th during that span. But Lawrence has elite skills in almost every area of his game.
Michael DiRocco on how he approached the Jaguars: Lawrence will play from the start even if the Jaguars contract Alex Smith, which seems to be a buzzword given his time with Meyer at Utah. Play the kid and start rebuilding.
Zach Wilson, QB, BYU.
The logic here comes from my last spot design: I expect Wilson to be the second pick, whether the Jets take him or not. This choice doesn’t necessarily mean they have to or will say goodbye to Sam Darnold, but if they do, Wilson is the obvious next step. If they don’t, make sure the team that needs the QB changes to get him. Wilson is creative and can extend plays, he can hit the ball deep and his durability in the pocket is excellent.
Richard Cimini, who addressed the Jets: If the Jets decide to go with Wilson, it means the end of Darnold, who will be traded – and probably before the Jets are even on the market. I think New York will be looking for a backup quarterback to ease the transition to Wilson, but they also need to find some playmakers to put around him.
2 Connected
Trade: Carolina jumps the line QB
Suddenly, we’re all in the design simulation business. But to be fair, this class is almost impossible to predict without something moving. Again, I’ll stick with the Miami-Carolina swap, which gives the Panthers a chance to get a standout QB. The Dolphins originally acquired the pick in a 2019 deal with Houston, and it’s a gift that keeps on giving: The Dolphins will likely be taken in a large package that could include the No. 8 pick, Carolina’s second option (No. 39) and a future first-round pick for 2022.
Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State.
Carolina is closer to contending than its proposed 5-11 record, and a true game-breaker at center would help the Panthers a lot. Teddy Bridgewater was more of a game manager last season, especially late in the game, throwing just four touchdowns more than interceptions. Fields can make unexpected throws or run away, but he’s also shown he’s in control when he’s in the pocket. Accuracy hits his deep balls.
David Newton on his resemblance to the Panthers: Even if Bridgewater is not sold and remains on the roster, Carolina will likely throw Fields into the starting lineup and develop with him like they did with Cam Newton in 2011. You only act this way if you think the player will become your franchise quarterback and can make an immediate impact. Bridgewater’s contract runs until 2022, but there is a possibility of an exit after this season.
Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State.
The QB runs, and Lance in Atlanta makes four picks in the first four picks – that’s never happened before. I love Lance’s vision on the field, his presence in the pocket, his arm strength and mobility. He needs time to learn and develop – he started just 17 games at North Dakota State – but Atlanta is giving him a chance to do that with Matt Ryan under contract through 2023. There’s no guarantee the Falcons will see that high bar again anytime soon, nor should they expect to. Take this opportunity to find Ryan’s heir.
Michael DiRocco on his Falcons likeness: Lance would be behind Ryan in 2021 and maybe even for at least part of the 2022 season to learn. Ryan is still playing at a high level, and his contract makes it difficult for the Falcons to move on, at least this year.
Pena Sewell, OT, Oregon
Quarterback Joe Barrow’s defense should be Cincinnati’s biggest concern this season after the Bengals’ line allowed 48 sacks in 2020. Barrow was pressured or hit nearly 30 percent of the time before suffering a knee injury in Week 11 that ended the season. Sewell is the best offensive lineman in his class, despite being fired last season, and he will help keep the Bengals’ franchise QB alive for years to come.
Ben Baby on his ejection with the Bengals: Sewell provides long-term stability on the left wing, which should help an offensive line still struggling with internal issues. If Sewell comes aboard, that likely means Jonah Williams moves to right wing.
Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida.
Despite the Eagles’ obvious weaknesses at receiver, I’m going to go with Pitts at the 6 spot. In the 10th, one tight end was selected ahead of the first wide receiver, and only four other tight ends were selected in the top six. But here’s the thing: Pitts is more than just a tight end. He’s a nightmare for any opponent, and his tremendous speed, hands, and 6-foot-4 length make him extremely difficult to control. Philadelphia needs to add receivers in Free Agency, but the Pitts-Dallas Goedert duo is an offensive coordinator’s dream.
Tim McManus on his resemblance to the Eagles: With Zach Ertz expected to be traded or released, Pitts will immediately assume the role of co-founder alongside Goedert. The Eagles scored 35% of the league’s points last season with the help of two tight ends, a number that would rise to the 2019 mark (52%) with Pitts on the team.
Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU.
It’s hard to pick Chase of Alabama’s DeVonta Smith out of the group, but the former might have an advantage because of his better physical attributes. What some may have forgotten on their waiver wire is that Chase scored 20 touchdowns and nearly 1,800 receiving yards in 2019. Much is expected to change in the Lions’ receiving corps in the coming weeks, and new Detroit GM Brad Holmes will need to find playmakers for the recently acquired Jared Goff.
Michael Rothstein on how he approached the Lions: Receivers Marvin Jones Jr, Danny Amendola and Jamal Agnew become free agents, and the question is whether Detroit will celebrate or let Kenny Golladay go. Detroit signed veteran Tyrell Williams this week, but the Lions are clearly looking for cornerstones for their rebuild. Chase fits that bill perfectly.
play
3:20
Mel Kiper weighs in on who, Devonta Smith or JaMarr Chase, should go first in the NFL Draft, and talks about his high hopes for Kyle Pitts.
DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama.
Miami GM Chris Grier should be happy with the result. First, the Dolphins traded a few spots for additional picks. That leaves one of the top two receivers when it’s his turn to be selected. Giving quarterback Tua Tagovailoa one of his favorite targets from his time at Alabama will certainly improve his QBR when throwing to wide receivers. Last season, he ranked 31st out of 33 qualified QBs (60.8). Smith, fresh off a Heisman and record performance in Tuscaloosa, is super explosive and shows a knack for keeping his course.
Cameron Wolfe in his time with the Dolphins: Smith will immediately become the team’s most explosive offensive player. He would be the starter opposite DeVante Parker and would likely play both outside and inside as well as inside as well as inside as well as inside as well as inside as well as inside as well as inside as well as inside as well as inside as well as inside.
Trade: The nine jumps ahead behind.
On my last taunt, I sent San Francisco down. Now the Niners are sliding the other way, into the top 10. Denver is looking for solutions to a number of problems, including defense. Since no defender has gone over the top at this point, it makes sense to go lower to get more assets; someone will be there at #12. That way, the Broncos could add something on the order of an additional second rounder (No. 43) to this year’s No. 12 pick, and perhaps a first or second rounder for 2022. It’s hard to say how much the Niners will count on the quarterback.
Mack Jones, QB, Alabama.
Five quarterbacks in the first nine games of loser’s bracket would break the previous record of five in the first 12 games (1999). Jones doesn’t have the running ability of the other four QBs, but he is fast, has excellent ball placement on short and intermediate throws and shows anticipation. He fits in well with the Niners’ up-tempo game and can bring more balance to an offense that ranks sixth in the NFL since coach Kyle Shanahan took over in 2017.
Nick Wagoner on his approach to the 49ers: Jones will likely be used as a replacement for starter Jimmy Garoppolo. I expect a similar environment to 2017 when they had Alex Smith and drafted Patrick Mahomes. The goal is to give Jones a chance to at least learn and develop during the season, while Garoppolo continues his departure and increases his value enough that it will be difficult for the 49ers to make a decision after the 2021 season.
Patrick Stein II, CB, Alabama.
All this talk of QB talent has put Dallas in a good position. The last player from the first group to come off the shelf was #7 in 1999, when Champ Bailey went to Washington. But the Cowboys are even luckier here, they need the defense, and on this side of the ball they have all the options number 10 gives them. Surtain is an instinctive cornerback who can help bolster a defense that allowed 10.4 yards on first contact and 34 passing touchdowns (the two worst in the NFL) last season. Pass rush is another area to keep an eye on, but the value and need to match up with Surtain.
Todd Archer on his offense with the Cowboys: Cornerbacks Chidobe Awuzie and Jourdan Lewis will go into free agency and could get better deals elsewhere. Sirstand would compete from day one, as would former Alabama teammate Trevon Diggs, who was selected in the second round by the Cowboys last year.
Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama.
The Giants need to give the offense more room to breathe. They were one of four teams averaging less than 5 yards per game last season, and their 5.9 yards per pass attempt ranked 29th. However, Waddle ranked eighth in the country with 18.9 yards on catches over the past two seasons. There is no more dangerous ball carrier in this recruiting class, thanks to his excellent speed, vision and ability to break away. And I hope Nick Saban was glued to his TV, because that’s four Alabama players live, including two first-round receivers for the second time in two years.
Jordan Raanan on his experiences with the Giants: Waddle, along with Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton, can be used immediately in three-catcher packages for the Giants. He will essentially take over the role that the recently fired Golden Tate played last season, but he will bring more playmaking ability that was lacking in the offense. In addition, Waddle will contribute immediately as a returner on special teams.
– Simulation drawings: Kiper | McShay
– Rating: Kiper | McShay
– Meet the Elite QB Class
– 30 Great Questions for Kiper & McShay
Full Review | Select Order | More
Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech.
In this scenario, the Broncos would rather stick with Drew Lock, waive McJones and go back for more capital. We still don’t know what new general manager George Paton will do with the quarterback, but we do know that his defense needs playmakers. What will happen to Von Miller, and can Denver target the edge rusher here? Will Justin Simmons be back or will TCU defender Trevon Meurig be in the game? The Broncos have a lot to answer for, but Farley – another 2020 committee – can play for a group that threw just 10 interceptions last season (tied for third).
Jeff Legwold on his offense with the Broncos: The corner is by far one of the most coveted positions. The Broncos have already fired A.J. Bouye, and Bryce Callahan just finished his second consecutive season on the injury reserve. Starting quarterbacks early will push quality defenders to the field, and Farley has starting potential.
Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwest
Justin Herbert gave up 32 sacks last year, which isn’t much compared to most NFL quarterbacks. But he saw pressure on his high rejection rate (33.5%), and that’s not good when you’re investing in a franchise QB. Free agency is on the horizon for most of the Chargers’ offensive linemen, either this year or in the near future, so adding someone like Slater makes a lot of sense. He is versatile, shows good body control in pass protection and has a good feel for angles as a run blocker.
Shelley Smith on his approach to the Chargers: The Chargers are desperate on the line, and Slater, who sat out 2020, can play at all five positions. He will start immediately where the team needs him most, perhaps as a tackle opposite right tackle Brian Bulaga.
Quiti Pei, D, Michigan…
It’s been almost a decade since the top 13 teams went to rounding (Seattle’s Bruce Irvin finished 15th in 2012). But the Vikings are looking for more impact players at the rim, and while Peay hasn’t necessarily matched Michigan’s production numbers (8.5 sacks in his last 16 games), he can push blocks and has some power. Minnesota’s 23 sacks were the fifth most in the NFL last season.
Courtney Cronin on her Viking resemblance: Peay is able to get right in front of Danielle Hunter on the defensive end. If Minnesota doesn’t want to rely solely on the Michigan rookie, it could use a combination of D.J. Wonnum – who has proven to be one of the Vikings’ best Day 3 picks since 2020 – and Pai at right guard, allowing Ifeadi Odenigbo to return to the rotation role in which he thrived two seasons ago.
Micah Parsons, Los Angeles, Penn State.
I see the Patriots contracting a quarterback this season via free agency or a trade – maybe Jimmy Garoppolo – and perhaps scrutinizing a second-day option at this position. But with the top 5 eliminated, another need arises with a certainty in the form of Parsons. The Penn State linebacker is out in 2020, but he can play in coverage, slot in as a running back, chase down ball carriers and even return as a QB. I love his game.
Mike Reiss on his walk with the Patriots: Parsons will have the luxury of learning alongside Dont’a Hightower – who returns after his own cancellation – at the center guard position, giving him a cushion he can’t rely on too much at first before taking over in 2022. It’s kind of what New England did to Jerod Mayo in 2008 when Tedy Bruschi passed the torch to him.
Jaycee Horn, BC, South Carolina.
J.J. Watt and Chandler Jones put opposing QBs in trouble, but who is in coverage? Both starting corners are Free Agency this month, and the Cardinals defense was in the thick of things last year. Horn gets his hands on the pass and brings length and instinctive play to the outside. In just seven games in 2020, he thwarted six passes and intercepted two.
Josh Weinfuss on his approach to the Cardinals: Horn will be a starter on the second team, which lacks sufficient cornerbacks. Free agency is losing its two best corners, Patrick Peterson and Dre Kirkpatrick, and Robert Alford hasn’t played in two seasons. Horne saw the action immediately.
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoa, LB, Notre Dame
The Raiders’ defense allowed 389.1 yards per game last season, eighth in the NFL. They got all 21 sacks done and were caught for 4.6 yards. They need basketball players, linebackers, defensive backs and linebackers, and although Owusu-Koramoa will only play at one position, he can have an impact on many facets of the game. Look at him in the role of floater, pulling down a report, or sidelining a QB. He has speed, instinct, suddenness and a lot of power.
Paul Gutierrez on how he approached the Raiders: Owusu-Koramoa is the dynamic sophomore defender who missed out on Las Vegas. New defensive coordinator Gus Bradley will find a way to use his versatility in his basic 4-3 scheme with Nick Kwiatkoski and Corey Littleton, even though Littleton and Owusu-Koramoa are Will’s linebackers. This is a good problem for Bradley.
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Alijah Vera-Tucker, G, USC.
We had Tua Tagovailoa a receiver earlier with DeVonta Smith, so we need to give him a little more protection at the line now. Vera-Tucker anchors the pass well and has only missed four pressure situations over the past two seasons at USC. The Dolphins were one of the teams with the most blitzers in the NFL last season (33.1% rejection rate), and as we discussed with the Bengals and Chargers, you have to protect a young quarterback – especially if he has an injury history like Tagovailoa.
Cameron Wolfe in his time with the Dolphins: The Dolphins’ offensive line improved in 2020, but still finished in the bottom third of the league in pass and run blocking. According to initial projections, Vera-Tucker will immediately start at right guard, Robert Hunt will remain out of the 2020 second round at right guard and versatile veteran Jesse Davis will remain on the bench.
Kadarius Toney, WR, Florida
Tony needs some adjustments, but his versatility, explosiveness and goal-zone acumen will immediately help an offense that recorded the second fewest yards per game and the eighth fewest points in 2020. His skills will be effective in a quick game if Washington can find ways to get the ball in his hands.
John Keim on his conflict with Washington: Tony would fit in well with offensive coordinator Scott Turner, who loves versatility. Sometimes he can be moved around and even drafted in the backfield. Washington can also add a free receiver. In the end, Terry McLaurin was attacked 83 times as the next best receiver in 2020.
Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech.
The Bears still don’t have an answer at quarterback, and what happens with receiver Allen Robinson II in the coming weeks could also affect the direction of this pick. But the line needs reinforcement, and Darrisaw is a solid left tackle who doesn’t allow many sacks and can penetrate the second level as a run blocker. Let’s give the QB some more time and give running back David Montgomery some more space.
Jeff Dickerson on his offense with the Bears: Offensive tackles are at the top of the Bears’ to-do list, as the future of veterans Bobby Massey and Charles Leno Jr. is unclear, to say the least. Darrisaw will be the starter from week one.
Gregory Russo, DE, Miami…
Christian Darrisou could be an option if he is still available to replace Anthony Castonzo at left tackle, or the Colts could take a closer look at Trevon Meurig (TCU) at safety. But it’s hard to ignore the need for pass-rush depth, especially when Indy has Free Agency on the sidelines. Russo hasn’t played since 2019, but he has 15.5 sacks this season and can outpace blockers with his strength. He would help keep an elite defense at the top of its game.
Mike Wells on how he approached the Colts: The pass rusher is the biggest target this season, especially with veteran Justin Houston as a free agent and the team looking to get younger. Along with DeForest Buckner, Russo has a chance to become a one-day starter if Indy doesn’t re-contract Houston, especially if Kemoko Touray continues to balk.
Jaelan Phillips, Washington State, Miami.
Tennessee desperately needs to fix a pass rush problem. A team hoping to make it to the Super Bowl can’t finish 30th in the league with 19 sacks, especially considering four of those came in Week 17 against Houston’s poor offensive line. It is impossible for a player to get six sacks and for a player to record more than three. Phillips played in eight games for Miami last season, and his sudden appearance gave opponents cause for concern.
Turron Davenport on his approach to the Titans: Phillips will be an immediate help for the Titans, although they will likely add a free agent for the draft. His effectiveness both against the run and as an impact pass rusher would make him a repeat starter if the Titans were to use the odd front. But also note his hand in the mud when Tennessee uses a four-man front.
Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay analyzed the 2021 NFL Draft.
– The first version of the podcast
Aziz Ojulari, OLB, Georgia.
The Jets have found a quarterback in the secondary, so let’s move on to the defense. They need someone who can sink a QB, other than Quinnen Williams, who led the 2020 team with seven sacks. Ojulari is a pass defender with good speed, bend and quickness in his first step. As for the lack of offensive players to back up Wilson, look forward to Free Agency this month and then the second day of the draft when enough good receivers and running backs become available.
Richard Cimini, who addressed the Jets: The Jets haven’t had an explosive offensive player in 15 years. The problem is that Ojulari fits the bill, and at 6-foot-9 and 90 pounds, he could be the middle man in the Jets’ new 4-3 front.
Najee Harris, RB, Alabama.
Ben Roethlisberger still has a contract through 2021 and has plenty of weapons. But with James Conner on his way to a free contract, the running game won’t hurt. Harris is this and that, showing speed, size, determination and ball security as a running back, but also a reverse position as a pass catcher and defender. Pittsburgh’s offense did pretty well in the second half of last season, and first place is still held by Benny Snell Jr. who could only carry for 3.3 yards per carry last year. Harris had a 6.0 average in four seasons at Alabama and his 26 rushing touchdowns in 2020 were the best in college football.
Brook Pryor on how he approached the Steelers: For a team that got off to a good start, the Steelers have a long list of needs in the 2021 draft and running backs are at the top of that list. Harris will be an immediate starter on a team that will likely say goodbye to Conner in free agency. The Steelers really need to revitalize their running game and keep it up this season. The addition of Harris is the first step.
Trevon Moehrig, S, TCU…
Overall, the Jaguars finished first with the best quarterback in the class. You now get maximum security with the second library number. Moehrig has six interceptions in his last two college seasons. If not a safety, then a defensive tackle – perhaps Washington’s Levi Onwusurike or Alabama’s Christian Barmore – would be a position to keep an eye on.
Michael DiRocco on how he approached the Jaguars: Jarrod Wilson started 28 games as a free safety the past two seasons and has been a regular, but the Jaguars need playmakers in the secondary. And Josh Jones is a free agent. Meurig may not be an immediate starter, but it would be surprising if he didn’t finish the season as one.
Zaven Collins, OLB, Tulsa
I’ve linked Collins to Cleveland in three consecutive spot drafts, and it makes sense. If the Browns really want to compete for the Super Bowl, they need another pass rusher opposite Myles Garrett, and Collins had a great shutout. And he can cover, as evidenced by his four interceptions last season. I also see Cleveland looking at safety if Trevon Meurig is still available.
Jake Trotter on how he approached the Browns: In recent years, the Browns have used first-round picks to build their young core at quarterback (Baker Mayfield), fullback (Garrett), cornerback (Denzel Ward) and left tackle (Jedrick Wills Jr.). The hiring of Collins would have given Cleveland an anchor at the linebacker position who could make a difference from day one.
Terrace Marshall Jr, WR, LSU.
Last season, Baltimore finished the year at 1,729 under WR receivers. In fact, that’s over 300 less than the next worst team. Marquise Brown had 58 catches for 769 yards, but no one else in the wide receiver group got above 450. Adding a guy like Marshall, who can make catches in traffic and create after the catch, could help quarterback Lamar Jackson regain his MVP form and offset an offense that in 2020 was the only one in the NFL to complete more passes than him.
Jamison Hensley on his Ravens likeness: Willie Snead IV and Dez Bryant are not expected to return, and Marshall’s 6-foot-9 frame matches Brown’s speed well, giving Jackson a bigger target on the outside.
Joe Tryon, Washington.
I thought Missouri’s Nick Bolton was there to fill the role of inside linebacker, but the edge rusher could use some help too. The Saints made 45 sacks last year, but concerns about age and the weight of free agency could topple this unit sooner rather than later. Tryon is down in 2020, but he’s versatile and quick off the edge. In 2019, he recorded 12.5 tackles for loss and eight sacks.
Mike Triplett on how he approached the Saints: The Saints will likely lose their first linebacker Trey Hendrickson, but even if they find a way to keep him, the problem is keeping him. Cameron Jordan turns 32 in July, and Marcus Davenport has yet to make it.
Levi Onwuzurike, DT, Washington.
Of course, Green Bay could target receivers Elijah Moore (Ole Miss) or Rashod Bateman (Minnesota), or even running back Travis Etienne of Clemson if they lose Aaron Jones on the free agent market. But the Packers were a power in the 1st round in the Aaron Rodgers era as well. Round looked away, suggesting they might do it again. And drafting Onwuzurike (another waiver) alongside Kenny Clark on the defensive line is a problem for opponents.
Rob Demovsky is on the field for the Packers: It’s not enough to change defenders. The Packers need to give Joe Barry some players now. They did it recently when they replaced the DCs. Capers got B.J. Raji and Clay Matthews when he arrived in 2009, and Mike Pettine got Jaire Alexander in the first round when he arrived in 2018.
Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson…
The missing piece in this offense is an elite running back. No Buffalo player gained 700 yards on the ground last season, and the running backs got on the ground just eight times. But Etienne has scored 70 runs in his college career and is a home run hitter in space. This crime can be dangerous.
Marcel Louis-Jacques on his approach to the Bills: If they learned anything from losing the AFC Championship Game to the Chiefs, it’s the importance of elite speed. Etienne offers that not only as a runner, but also as an experienced receiver out of the backfield. He would team up with Devin Singletary and Zach Moss to form a tight-knit group of rushers.
Nick Bolton, ILB, Missouri…
The offensive line needs a backup (maybe Jalen Mayfield from Michigan State or Bitches Jenkins from Oklahoma State), and the defensive line needs reinforcements as well. But this pick offers great value and brings a quick, versatile matchup element to the second level of the defense in combination with Anthony Hitchens. Bolton solves problems with good instincts and solid coverage.
Adam Teicher on his conflict with the Chiefs: Bolton would fit into an effort by the Chiefs to get a more athletic position at linebacker. He might not be a starter – defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo needs recruits – but ultimately he should be an improvement in an area where the Chiefs have struggled.
Jamin Davis, ILB, Kentucky.
Tampa Bay could complete the top 7 that could look very different in Week 1 than it did on Super Bowl Sunday. Davis could qualify here, but he’s very underrated and I like his record. If the Buccaneers fail to retain Lavonte David, Davis – who had 102 snaps and three pass interceptions last season – could take his place alongside Devin White. Someone like Alabama defensive tackle Christian Barmore also makes sense here.
Jenna Lane on how he approached the Buccaneers: Inside linebackers are the stars of Todd Bowles’ defense. Davis is a free agent and just turned 31. Even if Tampa Bay does bring him back, Davis could still mean something in the future. He can play in a variety of spots, which Bowles demands of his players, and he gives the Bucs the length they lack.
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