The first ranking of university football qualifications takes place on the 24th. November, so almost exactly one month from now. Plenty of time for what you think you need to change.
You just have to get excited – because a loser, Penn State, has to rehabilitate himself on Halloween by winning a home victory over Ohio State – to make the whole conference fall into chaos. (Yeah, even two games in one season.) If the Nittani Lions start the season 2-0, the Big Ten will fall behind Bakkiz against the best in the West.
Fault! The file name is not specified. ESPN-SIG
The question is how long each Power 5 conference can last with an undefeated team, which is probably the case when it comes to the semifinals of the CFP. Alabama and Clemson have been the best and most consistent contenders, but Ohio can prove the same with more possibilities. Undefeated, Notre Dame woke up in the attack and won the 45-3 in Pitta, while the Big 12 from Oklahoma still have an undefeated team.
The Pac-12 hasn’t even joined the party yet.
It’s clear that losing teams don’t give up the play-offs – but so far there are undefeated teams, and an opponent like Georgia is much harder to get into the top four.
Let’s look at the undefeated playoff opponents in descending order, who have the best chance of finishing the regular season undefeated:
Fast Playoffs: The Tigers are among the top five in terms of offensive and defensive effectiveness, which the committee believes they can separate from Alabama. The Tigers have a top five spot against Miami, and if it’s fair to question Dabo Piggy’s mistakes in Saturday’s victory over Syracuse (47-21), this game will not change Clemson’s position in the playoffs (although of course we can discuss who will be the number one). Three of Clemson’s five finals are underway, but the ESPN Football Power Index gives the Tigers a minimum 82 percent chance of winning every game.
Residual most difficult test: 7. November at Notre Dame. If the Irish continue to build on the success of their offensive game against Pitt on Saturday, it could be a close game. The main question is whether the defense of Notre Dame – which is why the Irish beat Louisville 12-7 – the actions of Trevor Lawrence and Co.
Fast Playoffs: The tide defeated Tennessee, but lost to star receiver Jaylen Waddle by an ankle injury that ended the season. Although Bama’s attack is still loaded, it’s a devastating blow because Waddle has a great ability to play big games and threatens to score. His absence shouldn’t suppress Tide’s hopes for the play-offs. The hardest part of the season in Alabama is behind us because Tide might not meet his opponent in the regular season. FPI ESPN gives Bama at least 82% chance to win each of the remaining games. The Alabama defense has also shown its strength in the last two weeks after the 10-0 victory. October versus Ole Miss 63:48: a constant improvement.
Residual most difficult test: 14. November at LSU. The only reason it’s a little more complicated than the Iron Bowl on the 28th. November is that it’s a road trip and Alabama gets the Auburn at home. Even without Wadl, Alabama’s attack should have an advantage over a mediocre defense against LSU and Auburn.
Fault! The file name is not specified. Alabama won a big victory over Tennessee, but was defeated when Jaylen Waddle was injured at the first start. The wedding’s off for the season. Katie McMackin-US Network ACTIONS
3. State of Ohio
Fast Playoffs: A one-sided victory over the Nebraska team isn’t enough to fairly compare the Buckeyes to Alabama and Clemenson, but yes, Justin Fields is so good, and Ohio’s eight-minute plan is extremely winning. Fields throw an incomplete pass – one! — …for 95.2%. Penn State and Michigan are probably the only opponents of the Buckeyes in the Big Ten rankings. There have been cases where the Ohio state offensive line has advanced along the Nebraska defensive front. How many other Buckeyes can leave their basic game without endangering the field?
Residual most difficult test: Saturday at Penn State. Will the Nittani Lions be emotionally lost after lost overtime in Indiana? Or are they determined to talk about the playoffs again? If the state of Ohio loses, this result could mean that this team will no longer be able to play for the Big Ten.
Fault! The file name is not specified. Justin Fields launched a single unfinished action on the highway between Ohio and Nebraska. Joseph Majorana/United States Today Sports
Fast Playoffs: We’ve seen this movie before. Wisconsin looks good all season, winning in the West and then losing to Ohio in a Big Ten game. Could this season be different? Maybe with quarterback Graham Mertz at the top of the offense. Did you like Fields? Well, Mertz did the same, he finished 20 of 21 passes on Friday and won 45-7 over Illinois – and he had the best day with five touchdowns. ESPN IPI is in favour of the badgers winning every competition with at least 84% this year. If Ohio and Wisconsin remain undefeated in the Big Ten, it’s still possible for both teams to place in the group of four in qualifying – but that depends on how the other Power 5 races are played.
Residual most difficult test: 14. November in Michigan. The Wolverines did well in their opening match against Minnesota no. 21 and in this match at Ann Arbor.
5. Our Lady
Fast Playoffs: In a shocking confession of honesty, coach Brian Kelly took the coach in his arms to talk about one game at a time and said: We’re a little impatient. The Irish know they will meet Clemson in two weeks – after an easy win at Georgia Tech on Saturday – and Kelly has challenged his team to play at this level now. He said we’re not just interested in winning football games. We’re interested in becoming a championship football team. Notre Dame foresaw it at Pitt, where the Irish played at full speed in all three stages. Don’t forget Notre Dame is part of CCA this season. Even if the Irish lose to Clemenson at home in the regular season, the Tigers can give them a second chance to play for the CCA title. Any excitement in this game would have triggered a very interesting debate in the committee room.
Residual most difficult test: 7. November versus Clemson. It’s not the only game that can ruin the perfect season of Notre Dame. Don’t forget your trip to North Carolina on Friday night, the 27th. November, which dramatically improved in his second season under Mac Brown.
Fault! The file name is not specified. Notre Dame Ben Scouroneck scored some TD’s on Saturday while the Irish continued rolling. Charles LeClaire/USA Today Sports
Fast Playoffs: Saturday’s victory at Team Iowa State reminded us that the 12 big players haven’t finished talking in the playoffs. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, Oklahoma has a 41% chance of winning the Big 12. If the cowboys get away with a loss or a zero, they qualify for the first fourth place, but the minute they lose, their chances are much smaller. The power of the conference can be a problem when comparing an Oklahoma loser to CCA, SEC and Big Ten champions. The Oklahoma defense, which has scored only 51 points so far, was one of the reasons for this success.
Residual hardness tester test: 21. November in Oklahoma. This is the only game on the Cowboys calendar where FPI ESPN gives them a chance to win less than 50% (48%).
Fast Playoffs: Quarterback Joe Milton did exactly what Michigan had to do: control the offense without turning him over. It wasn’t arrogant, and the Wolverines beat 21st place thanks to their run and defense. That way they can continue to win, but probably not at the highest level. Of the teams mentioned here, the Michigan Big Ten probably has the toughest way with games against Indiana, Wisconsin, Penn and Ohio. Michigan’s ability to get through all this seems unrealistic, but with just one game, Wolverine has enough time to improve and prove otherwise.
Residual most difficult test: 12. December in Ohio. Good luck, sir. ESPN REIT gives Michigan an 8.3% chance to win.
Fault! The file name is not specified. Michigan’s open victory over Minnesota was marked by a touchdown from defender Donovan Jeter. David Birding/Getty Pictures
GROUP OF THE 5 INVINCIBLE
For a team that is not in the Power 5 to qualify for a spot in the PCP, they almost certainly have to finish undefeated. And he beat his opponents with a score. And cause a lot of chaos at the Power 5 races. But it’s not impossible. The following teams will be ranked in order of increasing chance of remaining undefeated, and although Liberty is the last team, it also has the best chance of impressing the committee:
1. BYU: The last time the Cuguars started 2008 with a 6-0 score, according to FPI ESPN, they started the game against Texas on Saturday with a 48% chance to win the season. Only Clemson (59%) has the chance to finish the regular season invincible. Quarterback Zack Wilson was excellent and helped legitimize the WPV as an opponent, but in the absence of Power 5 opponents or odds against opponents in scoring, it will be difficult to convince the committee that the Panthers deserve a place above the Power 5 opponent with a better CV – even at a loss. The hardest game on the left is on the 6th. November, Friday night in Boise, took place, but ESPN ICP gives BYU more than 50% chance to win all remaining games.
2. Marshall: His best victory came on the 19th. September against the state of Appalachia on September 23, and he will probably no longer be a big contender in the regular season. If it increases the herd’s chances of finishing undefeated, it won’t leave a big impression on the selection committee – a hard lesson Marshall learned after starting 11-0 in the first season of the CFP in 2014.
3. Coastal Carolina: The chancellors won in Kansas and ranked 21st in Louisiana and 7th for offensive effectiveness. It’s a good team, but the ESPN IPF only gives Coastal Carolina a 36.7% chance to take the Appalachian State on the 21st. November.
4. Cincinnati: By winning the SMU, the Bearcats increased their chances of participating in the CAA championship game from 21% to 31% according to ESPN FPI. Cincinnati was a strong defensive team and that was demonstrated on Saturday with their victory at SMU, the most impressive Bearcats win so far. With the other games against Memphis, Houston, UCF and Tulsa, it won’t be easy to finish undefeated.
5. Freedom: The flames are the last on the list because they are unlikely to end the season undefeated, but if Hugh Freeze can perform this miracle, Liberty could have the best CV of any team outside the Power 5 team at the time of the playoffs. The flame would have defeated Syracuse, won Blacksburg in 19th place in Virginia Tech, won the state of North Carolina in 23rd place and won South Carolina in 25th place.
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