mollyfamwatWe are definitely at a point in the NHL season where the game plan is probably the most important factor going forward.
The leagues are entering the second week of the playoffs and after this week, only the championship remains. Scoring and rushing leagues shouldn’t worry about this schedule, but the pressure to play a minimum number of games puts pressure on value.
While success during the season can always be the deciding factor, the more important question for a fantasy player is this: What have you done for me lately?
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Take the cases of Semyon Varlamov and Ilya Sorokin for the New York Islanders. Varlamov ranks sixth among all goalies in fantasy points this season, while playing 63% of the team’s games in goal. Sorokin ranks 15th in the league in fantasy points allowed and has made just 37% of the Islanders’ zone. If you look at it that way, Varlamov is the goalie you want at the back.
But it’s not.
Last month, Sorokin overcame the gap to become a top guard. In March, Sorokin ranks ninth in the NHL in fantasy points with 55% in the slot, while Varlamov is 27th in fantasy points with 45% in the slot.
Clearly, Sorokin is the best option at this point. Although the crème de la crème rises to the top over a long period of time, there aren’t enough players in the NHL to back Varlamov and make the law of averages apply. And that’s if you want to argue that Varlamov was generally the better goalie, which may not be the case here as Sorokin comes through.
The same idea can be applied to all players. With that in mind and a focus on the rest of the schedule, the ratings will go a little crazy. These are the real rankings for the rest of the season, so keep in mind the differences in schedule and be prepared for a break in the fantasy rankings.
Reduce
Who’s been having a hard time lately?
David Pastrnak, W, Boston Bruins: We’ll start with Pastrnak to show that just because a player cools off doesn’t mean he can’t stay in the top spot. With 2.3 fantasy points per game (FPPG) on the season, but only 1.5 FPPG in the last month, the drop is significant. And with 7.5 fantasy points in the last three games, just think how bad he was the week before? But these last three games are a sign that Pastnak is back in the saddle. With the acquisition of Taylor Hall, the team was no longer flirting with the separation of Pastrnak from Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand. We can put the last month behind us and expect an elite end to the season from most of the Bruins’ offensive players – and that’s just as well, because the remaining 13 games are the furthest away from the Vancouver Canucks or Los Angeles Kings.
James van Riemsdyk, W, Philadelphia Flyers: What started as a hot season evaporated in the middle and is now fodder for the nostalgic. With just 0.9 FPPG last month, Van Riemsdyk has cut his FPPG total to 1.7. With only 11 games left, we can let it go.
Sol Kadri, C, Colorado Avalanche: The problems really started when the Avs removed him from his role as the fourth power forward (along with Jonas Donskoi). Kadri’s 1.5 FPGA looks pretty respectable this season, and he’s still listed in 60% of ESPN leagues. But it has scored just 0.8 FPGAs in the past month, as the Avalanche continues to focus on the top of the lineup in scoring. Let it go.
Logan Couture Sharks, C, San Jose: With 1.6 FPPG for the season and 0.9 FPPG last month, Couture is at an all-time low. And I mean a lot of things. On the 12th. In March, Couture had 2.3 FPPG and should have been in the top 10 of the league in fantasy points. He should definitely be on the bench and possibly replaced by someone who has scored a lot of points lately.
2 Connected
Tyler Toffoli, B, Montreal Canadiens: And an injury in late March seems to have burst Toffoli’s bubble. After scoring 2.0 FPPG on the season, he has scored just 1.3 FPPG since returning in early April. He still has the potential to score a lot of goals, and the Habs have 13 more fantasy games, so I’m more hesitant to drop Toffoli.
Construction impulse
On the other hand, some players still available in more than half of ESPN.com’s leagues have exploded in FPPG over the past month.
Connor Brown, W, Ottawa Senators: Quietly and with minimal fuss given the state of the team, Brown has played his way into the elite in fantasy this month. Only Brad Marchand scored more goals in April. And he gets fantasy bonuses: Two of his nine goals this month were scored on the power play and another two on the ground. And Brown does it without getting top-six minutes for the team. The Sens only have 10 games left to play, but you can probably put your money on the Browns. He had 2.6 FPPG last month.
Alex Goligoski, D, Arizona Coyotes: While his 1.7 GHP for the season is barely on the fantasy radar, Goligoski has contributed 2.5 GHP over the past month. He only trailed Adam Fox, Alec Martinez and Mark Giordano in play-by-play in that time.
Craig Smith, W, Boston Bruins: Hall was the missing piece of the puzzle to give the Bruins a second offensive line, and Smith is reaping the benefits. After scoring 1.9 FPPG last month (up from 1.4 FPPG on the season), Smith’s play has gotten even better since Hall arrived at the trade deadline. In four games with Hall as a teammate, Smith has 2.1 FPPG.
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And finally, there is an interesting case that breaks both boundaries.
JT Miller, Q/V, Vancouver Canucks: On paper, his FPPGs are down, but that’s probably because the Canucks have only played four games in the last month. So, FPPG’s decline aside, Miller (and all the Canucks) still have great appeal because of the number of games the team still plays for fantasy purposes. Sixteen of the team’s 18 games still count for ESPN’s fantasy season starts in Week 13. The month of May is coming to an end. If the effects of the COVID schedule have given you a lot of slack in the maximum number of games played at a position in your league, fill that space with Canuck. Is there a gap in the defense? Tyler Myers and Travis Hamonic (or even a suspended Alexander Edler). Is there room in the front? Tyler Motte or Tanner Pearson. Do you need a goalie? Braden Holtby will play a lot because of his busy schedule.
Brief example
Rope Hintz, W, Dallas Stars: A few new players have been highlighted this fantasy season, but I think he overlooked Hintez – to our detriment. He was available as a free agent in 56% of ESPN leagues at the start of the season. But even on the 30th. In March, availability was still 27%. But Hintz has been a major factor this season, and his breakthrough could be significant in the seasons to come.
To put its current position in terms of fantasy production in context, the Fantasy Points for 60 Minutes (FPP60) system does a good job of really distilling the talent for fantasy hockey; a few heavyweight bodycheckers will sneak onto the roster because of their minimal minutes, but for the most part the FPP60 leaders are like a who’s who of the league.
Among skaters who average 12 minutes per game, Hintz ranks eighth in PFF60. In front of him are only Austin Matthews, Vincent Trocheck, Connor McDavid, Brad Marchand, Nathan MacKinnon, Max Pacioretty and Alex Ovechkin.
Remember, the Stars have been without Tyler Seguin all season and Alexander Radulov most of the season. This team can get even better offensively, and Hintz, 24, will be the linchpin next season.
Rating
As the remaining games are played, you will see rankings that seem strange at first glance. Keep in mind that teams still have between nine and sixteen games to play, so we have to consider a wide range of results when calculating statistics.
Is Mike Smith the third-best goalie in fantasy hockey? In general, no, but now, for the rest of the season, yes. He’s been very active, accounting for 82% of the points scored over the past month, and the Oilers have 12 games to go.
Is Bo Horvat really in the top 20? For the whole season, never, and now for the rest of the season, absolutely. Forget the 16 remaining fantasy games, Horvat is averaging 2.7 FPPG since the start of March.
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Keep these two important points in mind: What’s the program? What have you done for me lately?
Abandonment
Steven Stamkos, Eugene Malkin, Zach Hyman, Jack Eichel, Philip Forsberg, Jaroslav Halak, Patrick Lane, Kirby Dah, Calvin Petersen, Kevin Labanck, Oliver Wahlstrom, Jacob Markstrom, Rickard Reykell, Wayne Simmonds Adam Boqvist, Eric Staal, Keith Yandle, Brandon Tanev, Robbie Fabbri, Jonathan Bernier Adin Hill, Frederik Andersen, Anthony Cirelli, Victor Arvidsson, Gabriel Vilardi, Calle Yarnkrock, Luke Koonin, Jeff Skinner…
Top 250 fantasy hockey rankings
1. Nathan MacKinnon, C, Colonel (C1)
2. Andrey Vasilevsky, G, TB (G1)
3. Brad Marchand, LW, Forest (LW1)
4. Connor McDavid, C, Edm (C2)
5. Mikko Rantanen, RV, Colonel (RW1)
6. Gabriel Landeskog, LW, Colonel (LW2)
7. Connor Hellbake, G, Wpg (G2)
8. Austin Matthews, C, Goal (C3)
9. Roope Hintz, C, Dal (C4)
10. Patrice Bergeron, C, Forest (C5)
11. Vincent Trocheck, C, Auto (C6)
12. Leon Draisaitl, LW, Edm (LW3)
13. Adam Fox, D, New York (D1)
14. Mike Smith, G, Edmar (G3)
15. Artemy Panarin, LW, NYR (LW4)
16. Bo Horvath, C., Wang (C7)
17. Alec Martinez, D, Vgs (D2)
18. Keil Makar, D, Colonel (D3)
19. Darnell Nurse, D, Edmar (D4)
20. Mika Zibanejad, C, NYR (C8)
21. Drew Doughty, D, LA (D5)22. Sidney Crosby, C, Pit (C9)
23. Alexey Ovechkin, LW, Wsh (LW5)
24. Brock Boeser, RW, Van (RW2)
25. Max Pacioretty, LW, Vgs (LW6)
26. Cam Talbot, G., Min (G4)
27. Hamilton Arc, D, Auto (D6)
28. Jake Guentzel, LW, Pit (LW7)
29. David Perron, RW, StL (RW3)
30. Jared Spurgeon, D, Min (D7)31. Alexander Barkov, C, Fla (C10)
32. Jack Campbell, G., Thor (G5)
33. Ryan O’Reilly, C, StL (C11)
34. Taylor Hall, LW, Forest (LW8)
35. David Pastrnak, RW, Bos (RW4)
36. Mitch Marner, RW, But (RW5)
37. Mark Scheifele, C, Wpg (C12)
38. Joe Pavelski, RW, Dal (RW6)
39. Juus Saros, G, Nsh (G6)
40. J.T. Miller, C., Wang (C13)
41. Victor Hedman, D, TB (D8)
42. Mark Stone, RW, Vgs (RW7)
43. Devon Toews, D, Col (D9)
44. Quinn Hughes, D, Van (D10)
45. John Carlson, D, Wsh (D11)
46. Jeff Petrie, D, Mon (D12)
47. Esa Lindell, D, Dahl (D13)
48. Jacob Cichrun, D, Ari (D14)
49. Ryan Strom, C, NYR (C14)
50. Alex DeBrincat, LW, Chi (LW9)
51. Robin Lehner, G, Vgs (G7)
52. Kirill Kaprizov, LW, Min (LW10)
53. Kevin Fiala, S, Min (C15)54. Charlie McAvoy, D., Forest (D15)
55. Sebastian Aho, C, Automotive (C16)
56. Jacob Trouba, D, New York (D16)
57. Anze Kopitar, C, LA (C17)
58. Pavel Buchnevich, RW, New York (RW8)
59. John Klingberg, D, Dahl (D17)60. Jared McCann, LW, Pit (LW11)
61. Shea Weber, D, Mo (D18)
62. Colton Parayko, D, StL (D19)
63. Brent Burns, D, SJ (D20)
64. Chris Letang, D, Pete (D21)
65. Alex Iafallo, LW, LA (LW12)
66. Nicholas Ehlers, LW, Wpg (LW13)
67. Vince Dunn, D, StL (D22)
68. Ryan Graves, D, Colonel (D23)
69. Jason Robertson, LW, Dal (LW14)
70. Anthony Manta, RW, Wsh (RW9)
71. Tyler Toffoli, RW, Mo (RW10)
72. Kyle Connor, LW, Wpg (LW15)
73. Andrey Svechnikov, LW, Auto (LW16)
74. Brian Rast, RV, pit (RW11)
75. Justin Falk, D, StL (D24)
76. Dustin Brown, RW, LA (RW12)
77. Martin Necas, C, Auto (C18)
78. Craig Smith, RW, Forest (RW13)
79. Jordan Staal, S, Automobile (C19)80. John Tavares, C, Gate (C20)
81. Matthew Dumba, D, Min (D25)
82. Alex Pietrangelo, D, Vgs (D26)
83. Igor Shesterkin, G, NYR (G8)
84. Sean Couturier, K, Fee (C21)85. Nick Suzuki, C, Mo (C22)
86. David Krejci, C, Forest (C23)
87. Ivan Provorov, D, Phi (D27)
88. Ilya Sorokin, G, New York (G9)
89. Mike Hoffman, LW, StL (LW17)
90. Tyson Barry, D, Edm (D28)
91. Chris Dreiger, G., Fla. (G10)
92. Petr Mrazek, G, Automotive (G11)
93. Thomas Hertl, C., S.J. (C24)
94. Anton Khudobin, G., Dahl (G12)
95. Alex Goligoski, D, Ari (D29)
96. Shea Theodore, D, Vgs (D30)
97. T.J. Oshie, RW, Wsh (RW14)
98. Patrick Kane, RW, Chi (RW15)
99. Tyler Myers, D., Van (D31)
100. Vladimir Tarasenko, RW, St. Petersburg St. Petersburg (RW16)
101. Connor Murphy, D, Chi (D32)
,102. Adam Larsson, D, Edm (D33)
103. Brady Tkachuk, LW, Ott (LW18)
104. Brandon Montour, D, Fla (D34)
.105. Tuukka Rask, G, Bos (G13)
106. Connor Brown, RW, Ott (RW17)
.107. Josh Anderson, RW, Mon (RW18)
,108. Mark Giordano, D, Cgy (D35)
109. Evander Kane, LW, SJ (LW19)
110. Thomas Tatar, LW, Mo (LW20)
111. Thomas Chabot, D, Ott (D36)
112. Tyler Motte, LW, from (LW21)
113. Neil Pionk, D, Wpg (D37)
,114. Philip Grubauer, G, Colonel (G14)
115. Blake Wheeler, RW, Wpg (RW19)
116. Travis Hamonic, D, Wang (D38)
117. Miro Heiskanen, D, Dal (D39)
118. Chris Kreider, Los Angeles, NY (LW22)
119. Roman Yosi, D, Nsh (D40)
120. Joshua Norris, C, Ott (C25)
121. Jean-Gabriel Pago, C., New York (C26)
122. Joel Edmundson, D, Mon (D41)
123. Ondřej Palát, LW, TB (LW23)
124. Samuel Girard, D, Colonel (D42)
125. Rasmus Ristolainen, D, Boothe (D43)
126. Torey Circle, D, StL (D44)
127. Matthew Barzal, C, NYI (C27)
,128. Yanni Gurd, LW, TB (LW24)
129. Jonas Brodin, D., Min (D45)
130. Tristan Jarry, G., Pete (G15)
131. Josh Morrissey, D, Wpg (D46)
132. Brayden Point, C, TB (C28)
133. Sam Reinhart, RW, Buf (RW20)
134. Pierre-Luc Dubois, C, Wpg (C29)
135. Ryan Pulock, D, New York (D47)
,136. Tyler Seguin, C, Dal (C30)
,137. Patrick Hornquist, RW, Fla (RW21)
138. Matt Grzhelczyk, D, Forest (D48)
139. Adrian Kempe, C, Los Angeles (C31)
140. Nate Schmidt, D, Wang (D49)
141. Jamie Benn, LW, Dal (LW25)
,142. Jeff Carter, C, Pit (C32)
,143. Mats Zuccarello, RV, Min (RW22)
144. Jake Muzzin, D, Thor (D50)
145. Elias Lindholm, RW, Cgy (RW23)
146. William Nylander, RW, But (RW24)
,147. Brayden Schenn, C, StL (C33)
148. Martin Jones, G., S.J. (G16)
149. Alexander Edler, D, Wang (D51)
150. Nicklas Backstrom, C, Wsh (C34)
151. Joel Eriksson Eck, C, Min (C35)
152. Jakob Slavin, D, automotive (D52)
153. Alex Nedeljkovic, G, Automotive (G17)
154. Tom Wilson, RW, Wsh (RW25)
155. Nick Foligno, LW, Gate (LW26)
156. Kevin Lankinen, G., Chi (G18)
157. Nico Hisher, C., NJ (C36)
,158. Scott Mayfield, D, New York (D53),159. Travis Zajac, C, New York (C37)
160. Brett Pesce, D, automotive (D54)
161. Phil Kessel, RW, Ari (RW26)
.162. Marc-André Fleury, G, Vgs (G19)
163. Nick Bonino, C, Min (C38)
164. Andrey Burakovsky, LV, Colonel (LW27)
165. Carter Verhege, C, Fla (C39)
166. Seth Jones, D, Cls (D55)
167. Paul Zaha, C, NJ (C40)
.168. Matthew Tkachuk, LW, Cgy (LW28)
169. Jonathan Huberdeau, LW, Fla (LW29)
170. Chandler Stevenson, C, Vgs (C41)
171. Frank Watrano, LW, Fla (LW30)
172. Andrew Kopp, C, Wpg (C42)
173. Zach Paradise, LW, Min (LW31)
.174. Witek Vanecek, G, Wsh (G20)
175. Nikita Zaitsev, D, Ott (D56)
176. Morgan Rilley, D, Gate (D57)
.177. Jonas Donskoy, RV, Colonel (RW27)
178. Shane Gostisbehere, D, Fi (D58) 179. Nick Ritchie, LW, Woods (LW32)
180. Erik Karlsson, D, SJ (D59)
181. Dmitry Orlov, D, Wsh (D60)
182. Mikhail Sergachev, D, TB (D61)
183. Jordan Binnington, G, StL (G21)
184. William Karlsson, C, Vgs (C43)
185. Jesper Bratt, RW, NJ (RW28)
.186. Kyle Palmieri, RW, NYI (RW29)
.187. Semyon Varlamov, G, NYI (G22)
188. Travis Ultimate, RW, Phi (RW30)
189. Duncan Keith, D., Chi (D62)
190. P.C. Subban, D., N.J. (D63)
191. Rasmus Dahlin, D, Boothe (D64)
192. Evgeny Kuznetsov, C, Wsh (C44)
193. Johnny Gaudreau, LW, Cgy (LW33)
194. Josh Manson, D., Ana (D65)
195. Brian Dumoulin, D, Pete (D66)
196. Jake Virtanen, RW, Van (RW31)
197. Jonathan Marchessault, LW, Vgs (LW34)
198. Eli Tolvanen, LW, Nsh (LW35)
199. Corey Perry, RW, Mon (RW32)
.200. Jordan Eberle, VR, New York (RW33)
201. Ryan Souter, D, Min (D67)
202. Jesse Puljujarvi, RW, Edm (RW34)
203. Alex Tuch, RW, Vgs (RW35)
204. Adam Lowry, C, Wpg (C45)
205. Nino Niederreiter, RW, Auto (RW36)
206. Jaden Schwartz, LW, StL (LW36)
207. Brock Nelson, C, New York (C46)
,208. Nazem Qadri, C, Col (C47)
209. Ryan McDonagh, D, TB (D68)
.210. Andreas Athanasiou, LW, LA (LW37)
211. Nikita Gusev, LW, Fla (LW38)
212. Drake Batterson, C, Ott (C48)
213. Philip Dano, C., Mo (C49)
214. Ryan Hartman, RW, Min (RW37)
.215. Joel Farabee, LW, Phi (LW39)
216. Maxime Comtois, LW, Ana (LW40)
217. Thatcher Demco, G., Van (G23)
218. Miles Wood, LW, NJ (LW41)
219. Ben Chiaro, D, Mo (D69)
220. Jakub Voracek, RW, Phi (RW38)
221. David Savard, D, TB (D70).222. Timo Meyer, RW, SJ (RW39)
223. Eric Chernak, D, TB (D71)
.224. Oliver Ekman-Larsson, D, Ari (D72)
225. Braden Holtby, G., Wang (G24)
226. Ryan Ellis, D, Nsh (D73)
227. Anthony Beauvillier, Los Angeles, New York (LW42)
228. Nick Leddy, D, NYI (D74)
.229. Anthony Duclair, LW, Fla (LW43)
230. Denis Gurianov, LW, Dal (LW44)
231. Mikael Backlund, C, Cgy (C50)
232. Claude Giroux, LW, Phi (LW45)
233. Justin Schultz, D, Wsh (D75)
234. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, C, Edm (C51)
235. Conor Garland, RW, Ari (RW40)
,236. Logan Couture, C, SJ (C52)
237. Mikael Granlund, LW, Nsh (LW46)
238. Elias Pettersson, C., Wang (C53)
239. Victor Olofsson, RW, Buf (RW41)
240. James van Riemsdyk, LW, Phi (LW47)
241. Alex Killorn, LW, TB (LW48)
242. Alex Galchenyuk, LW, Gate (LW49)
243. Jordan Greenway, LW, Min (LW50)
244. Nick Schmalz, K, Ari (C54)
245. Jordan Kirov, C, StL (C55)
246. Tanner Pearson, LW, Van (LW51)
247. Carey Price, G, Mon (G25)
248. Sergey Bobrovsky, G, Fla (G26)
249. Jason Zucker, LW, Pit (LW52)
250. Casey DeSmith, G, Pete. (G27)
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