Fantasy hockey – Forecaster for the week of March 22-28

If you are interested in a particular type of fantasy production, there are several ways to analyze the data. When I looked at fantasy power points, I wavered between looking at raw stats, bet sizes, or percentages. So I decided to take a little of all three.

Power-play fantasy points (PPFP) are power-play goals, power-play assists and power-play shots combined to determine a player’s power-play fantasy points. Because ESPN’s standard scoring has a 0.5 point bonus for special teams, field goals are actually worth 2.5 fantasy points and assists 1.5 points. Shots are worth 0.1 fantasy points. I couldn’t find a source for hits and blocked shots being accumulated by powerplay alone, but I think it’s fine if the powerplay is working well, players shouldn’t do too many of those things.

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In terms of raw numbers, the leaders won’t surprise anyone. He leads Connor McDavid with 45.5 PPFP and Leon Draisaitl right behind him with 43.8. In third place with 35.2 points is a slight lead over Joe Pavelski, which you can probably guess based on his season so far.

Then we see some interesting names. Anze Kopitar is 14th in total fantasy points this season, but fourth in PPFP with 34.6. The Los Angeles Kings’ power play has gotten incredibly better. They have already scored 26 power play goals in 28 games this season, compared to 33 in 70 games last season. That puts Drew Doughty seventh in the PPFP, Adrian Kempe 23rd and Dustin Brown 30th. For whatever reason, Kempe remains a free agent in over 50% of ESPN leagues.

Ondrej Palat of the Tampa Bay Lightning is fifth in the PPFP this season. As a result, he has already earned powerlifting points for the season. If it occurs to you that he is a marketable prospect in your league, put him away.

Another player who caught my eye was Johnny Gaudreau. He’s 95th in fantasy points among skaters, but 11th in PPFP this season. If coach Darryl Sutter can find a way to get Gaudreau into a consistent rhythm, he can turn this season around. Let’s hope we see Elias Lindholm back as soon as possible.

Looking at the prices, we see who does well with the PPFP in 60 minutes (PPFP60).

2 Connected

Hopefully the Chicago Blackhawks can get Dominik Kubalik’s production in limited time. He has averaged just over two minutes per game and is currently in his second unit. But among players who play at least two minutes per game, he easily leads the NHL with 23.2 PPFP60. Maybe the team can make room by moving Ryan Carpenter or Carl Soderbergh out of the top block?

The Winnipeg Jets actually have six power play options, so of course someone has to miss out on the fun. But Nikolaj Ehlers averages just 1:34 per game on the power play, but of the players who have played at least 40 minutes on the power play this season, he’s only behind Kubalik and Vincent Trocheck (20.7) on PPFP60. If I had a chance at the top unit, I would expect a spike in his fantasy production.

Wayne Simmonds has returned to training for the Leafs and is the definition of a power play specialist. Two of his 11 minutes per game before his broken wrist were on the power play and his PPFP60 (20.3) ranks ninth in the NHL for skaters with at least 10 minutes on the power play. If he can recapture his role on the Leafs’ power play, he could be a good choice in deeper leagues.

An end-of-season injury to Anders Lee may open the door for Oliver Wahlstrom to expand his options. He’s already making the most of it with 19.9 PPFP60 (10th in the NHL), despite averaging just 1:32 of power play time.

And for keeper league, hide Jake Beane. Of all the skaters who have at least 10 minutes of playing time, none come close to their PPFP60. He played just 18 minutes in man-up situations, but he scored one goal and provided four assists for 29.3 FPP60. While Beane is a restricted free agent at the end of the season, Dougie Hamilton is an unrestricted player. I’m just saying.

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As far as percentages go, I’d advise you to be careful about investing in players who have scored more than 40% of their total fantasy points on the power play. For some of them, power play time is not guaranteed, and of course they need it to contribute to your team.

Victor Olofsson of the Buffalo Sabres collected 61% of his fantasy total through the PPFP. If the new coaching staff can find another angle on the power play that doesn’t involve Olofsson (which on paper is easy to do with both Rasmus on the blue line), that could be a problem. David Perron has earned 43% of his fantasy points this season thanks to PPFP. There’s no Mike Hoffman or the soon-to-return Jaden Schwartz on the Blues’ top line, so there’s a world in which Perron loses access to those important stats. Nick Ritchie is clearly a problem here as the Bruins’ fourth striker. Of course, 48% of production is associated with PPPP. The Bruins have other options here, if he stays at all. And I’m not really worried about Cale Makar now that he’s back with the Avalanche and running the powerplay, but Samuel Girard and Devon Toews have done so well in his absence that he can’t afford to miss opportunities. Makar has achieved 44% of his fantasy production on the power play this season.

Fantasy forecast: March 22-28

The vast majority of teams (24) have a four-game schedule ahead of them, so check your bubble list this week. Especially from the Los Angeles Kings, Toronto Maple Leafs or Vancouver Canucks, who only play twice.

Control Gms nuts Mo
3/22
Mar
3/23
see
3/24
C
3/25
And
3/26
Sa
3/27
Sun
3/28
4 3

5

@MIN

4

OFF @MIN

4

OFF @STL

5

4

OFF @STL

5

4

4 4

4

COL

3

COL

3

OFF OFF SJ

6

5

SJ

6

5

OFF
4 5

10

OFF NEW YORK

2

9

OFF NEW YORK

2

9

OFF BUF

7

10

NJ

5

10

4 5 @NYR

5

OFF @ PIT

3

@ PIT

3

OFF @BOS

5

OFF
4 6

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@OTT

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OFF @OTT

6

6

OFF WPG

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4

WPG

6

4

OFF
4 10

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@CLS

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9

OFF OFF @CLS

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OFF TB

8

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TB

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4 9 OFF FLA

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OFF FLA

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OFF NC

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2

NC

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2

4 7

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@ARI

9

10

@ARI

9

10

OFF VGS

5

6

OFF VGS

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6

OFF
4 4

2

AUTOMOBILE OFF OFF AUTOMOBILE OFF @DET

5

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@DET

5

5

4 5

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OFF TB

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OFF TB

4

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OFF FLA

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FLA

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OFF CLS

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CLS

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4 6 @MTL

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OFF @MTL

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OFF @MTL

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@ TOR

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4

OFF
4 7

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OFF @CHI

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3

OFF @CHI

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OFF @DAL

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@DAL

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2 5

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@SJ

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OFF OFF OFF OFF
3 6

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ANA

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OFF ANA

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STL

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OFF OFF OFF
4 10

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EDM

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OFF EDM

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OFF EDM

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OFF OTT

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6

4 6

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OFF DET

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OFF DET

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OFF @CHI

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2

@CHI

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2

4 3

4

OFF @ PHI

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OFF @WSH

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@WSH

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OFF @BOS

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4 5

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@ PHI

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@BOS

2

9

OFF @BOS

2

9

OFF @ PIT

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OFF
4 7

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BUF

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OFF OFF @ PHI

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OFF @ PHI

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@WSH

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2

4 6

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CGI

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OFF CGI

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TOR

8

5

OFF OFF @MTL

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2

4 5

6

NEW YORK

2

3

NJ

6

7

OFF NEW YORK

4

5

OFF NEW YORK

4

5

OFF
3 5

7

OFF OFF BUF

9

10

BUF

9

10

OFF NEW YORK

4

5

OFF
4 6

5

LA

6

2

OFF LA

6

2

OFF @ARI

7

6

@ARI

7

6

OFF
4 5

6

@VGS

2

OFF OFF @MIN

5

ANA

7

6

OFF ANA

7

6

4 7

6

OFF @DAL

8

7

OFF @DAL

8

7

OFF @CAR

6

3

@CAR

6

3

2 4 OFF OFF OFF @OTT

6

3

OFF EDM

7

3

OFF
2 4

2

WPG

6

4

OFF WPG

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4

OFF OFF OFF OFF
3 6

6

STL

10

9

OFF OFF @COL

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OFF @COL

6

5

OFF
3 8

6

OFF OFF OFF NJ

10

8

NJ

10

8

OFF NEW YORK

9

6

4 7

5

@VAN

6

4

OFF @VAN

6

4

OFF @CGY

7

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@CGY

7

5

OFF

For those who are not familiar with the synoptic table, here is some explanation: O (Offense), left behind each matchup, and D (Defense), right, matchup grades are based on a scale of 1 (poor matchup) to 10 (excellent matchup) and are calculated using a formula that evaluates the team’s season statistics, home and away performance based on the location of the match, and opponent grades in those categories. The Rankings column shows the cumulative rankings from 1 to 10 games of the week for both offense (O) and defense (D).

Ordering instructions

New York Rangers: Mika Zibanejad went from 1.4 fantasy points per game (FPPG) to 1.7 (or 200th to 100th in FPPG) in one game. The Rangers have the Buffalo Sabres and two games against the Philadelphia Flyers (who were defeated 9-0 on Wednesday), plus a fourth game against the Washington Capitals. It’s safe to say that Zibanejad should come off the bench for now. But if you’re looking for someone to add to your roster, keep in mind that Zibanejad’s Paul Buchnevich is only rated at 60 percent in ESPN leagues, while Colin Blackwell (in second place with Artemi Panarin and Ryan Strome) is especially versatile.

Nashville Predators: This game plan is normal if Detroit Red Wings goalie Jonathan Bernier is not healthy next week, and absolutely fantastic if he is not. The Predators face the Wings twice and the Blackhawks twice. Bernier is the only one keeping pucks out of the Red Wings’ net this season. If they have to rely on Thomas Grays, expect a goal fest for the Predators later in the week. Eli Tolvanen is my suggestion to play with Ryan Johansen and Filip Forsberg. But if you’re in a deeper league and he’s gone, consider Kalle Jarnkrook as a second player, as with Mikael Granlund and Viktor Arvidsson. Matthias Ekholm also didn’t shy away from filling in for the injured Roman Josi on the Preds’ power play.

play

0:29

Kalle Jarnkrock scores both goals for the Predators in a 2-1 win over the Panthers.

Player notes

Jaroslav Halak, G, Boston Bruins: If Tuukka Rask is not called upon next week, you can fully expose Halak on your team this week. The Bruins have good defensive games against the New York Islanders, Buffalo Sabres and New Jersey Devils. If Rask (undisclosed injury) is out all week, Halak should start three times and earn two.

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Kasperi Kapanin, B, Pittsburgh Penguins: The presence of Evgeni Malkin made Kapanen an interesting addition for fantasy, and his absence could make him even more interesting. Kapanen, who is not playing on the same line now that Malkin is injured, will replace the star striker on the Pens’ power play. He has four goals and 11 assists in 10 games in March.

Cody Glass, C, Vegas Golden Knights: This may not last long, as Chandler Stephenson and Alex Tuch are only day-to-day with injuries, but the combination of the two in the lineup elevates the glass to both the number one center role and the top power play position.

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