The Dallas Mavericks and Utah Jazz qualify for their final two games on Friday night in Salt Lake City. It’s time to continue the NBA odds series and provide a Mavs-Jazz tip and prediction.
The Mavericks have a record of 8-10 and 9-9 against the spread, while the Jazz are 14-4 and have the best record in the league at 13-5 against the spread.
Utah has won ten games in a row, and still has the gap closed. This includes their last game against the Mavericks, in which they won by a combined 12 points as two-point favorites.
Here’s how the sports books set the Mavs-Jazz odds for revenge.
Paris NBA: Mavs Jazz opportunities
Dallas Mavericks +3.5 (-109)
Utah Jazz -3.5 (-111)
More than 222 points (-110)
less than 222 points (-110).
Why the Mavs could cover the spread of
The recipe for beating the Jazz this season is solid perimeter defense and hoping their shooter has an off night.
Utah has lost four straight in the 2020-21 season. In all four cases, they shot 35% or less from the arc.
That plays into the Mavericks’ hands. Dallas keeps their opponents in fourth place in the championship with a three point percentage.
By the way, the Jazz will be without Donovan Mitchell. Mitchell leads the Jazz with three points, giving Utah a key score and a perimeter threat.
The biggest challenge for the Mavericks will be breaking through Utah’s elite defense.
The Jazz do a good job of forcing the offense on contested shots, but they don’t force many turnovers. The Jazz were the last to fly and were forced to turn around.
It’s a good sign for the Moors, who are already very good at handling the ball. Dallas passes the ball second in the league about 11 times per game. If Dallas plays a clean ball game and delivers quality goods, the Jazz’s defense might weaken.
Expect Luka Doncic and his companions to recover from their disastrous performance and make the necessary adjustments to keep the game tight.
Why Jazz can cover distribution
The Jazz are currently in their best period in the NBA this season.
It is rare for a team to win 10 games in a row, but it is almost impossible to win 10 games in a row.
What makes this film even more impressive is the way Jazz does his covers. They have no cover, they blow the teams out of the water.
By comparison, Utah is covered by an average of 11.2. Vegas continues to offer them low spreads (the Jazz have only been favored by double digits in two of their last ten games), and the Jazz remain an easy target for them.
If jazz has dominated, it’s to protect them. Utah ranks third in the league defensively and holds opponents to third in field goal percentage and second in points per game in the entire NBA.
Against a Mavericks team that already struggles to get the ball (4th in the league), the Utah defense has a chance to put on another show Friday night.
The Jazz just beat this team with what seemed like minimal effort. Even without Mitchell, they have a good chance of crushing and covering a small area.
Mavs Jazz Prediction and Final Selection
Utah is the hottest team in the league, and they just crushed Dallas. They now face another small deficit of three-and-a-half points in an arena where they did not lose in 2021. The Jazz are missing a significant portion of their offense, but I think their defense leads them to another win tonight. The game will be more exciting this time around, but I’ll be back in Utah, in Salt Lake City, trying to slow down the Mavs’ offensive team.
THE PREDICTION OF THE SESSIONS: UTA 112, DAL 106 (JAZZ -3.5)
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